Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Sports betting systems

There's always a lot of storytelling and a lot of controversy surrounding sports betting systems. Obviously there are tons of myths about such systems as well. They're a bit like winning casino systems: people kind of know that they can't possibly work the way he some folks say they do, yet they cling to the belief that somebody out there probably much smarter than them, may have thought of something that could beat the house in casino gambling and turn the bookmaker’s juice against him in sports betting. The truth of the matter is: there are sports betting systems out there that work. The only problem is these systems don't quite look like the ones advertised on various websites for a handful of dollars, which claim to post incredible winning percentages of over 90%. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure that most of the so-called betting systems are nothing but a bunch of baloney. No reasonable sports bettor will ever believe that someone can post winning rates of over 90%. This is just unreal. Something like 55% or 60% maybe but sometimes even that is a long shot. You see, according to experts, winning sports betting feels a lot like losing.

Despite the fact that you walk away a long-term winner, you still lose quite a large percentage of your overall bets. One of the biggest psychological challenges presented by sports betting lies in the very fact that you never really quite feel like a winner, even when you are one. Anyway, how is it then that these false sports betting systems can actually back their claims up with numbers? The explanation is surprisingly simple, and quite probably rather disappointing for many of the “believers” out there.

Most of these incredibly successful sports betting systems are based on chasing the losses. That's right, you read that right. And because you are a sports bettor you probably know that chasing your losses is the worst thing you can possibly do as far as bankroll management is concerned.

Here's how these systems arrive to the numbers of they’re advertising: after every losing bet, they advise the player to double his wager. For online gamblers this approach may seem eerily familiar as most of them have heard and probably even given a shot to the Martingale system. The Martingale system is a fallacious chase system, which only really works in theory. The most important problem with it is that it requires an endless bankroll on the part of the player, a condition which obviously cannot possibly be fulfilled in the real world.

The chase system assumes that the bettor will hit a winning bet before his roll runs out. That single win will then recover all his previous losses plus it will spice things up with a little bit of profit on top. With that in mind, the system never really considers the losses that occur along the way. For all practical reasons, it only considers the last winning bet which turns the tide in favor of the player. This is how the fabulous winning rates are achieved.

I probably shouldn't tell you why such an approach can’t possibly work in the real world. Are there are sports betting systems out there that do indeed work though? Of course there are. Every successful sports bettor uses one. These systems are much more modest when it comes to winning rates though, and they're a lot harder to work with too.

Every successful sports betting system comes in two parts. Part one is about bankroll management. Bankroll management is not an overly complicated issue but if applied incorrectly it will pretty much void the results generated by the second part. The second part is about finding the hidden value: the only way to find any sort of positive expected value in your bets. Obviously, finding the hidden value is not an easy task.

Good bettors spent tons of time tracking lines and analyzing line movements. Handicapping is also part of the deal as well as reverse handicapping. The bottom line is: in order to find value and to efficiently exploit it, you need to work your butt off and you have to remain 100% focused and disciplined at all times. The whole thing is reminiscent of successful poker play. Do your homework, pay your dues and with a little bit of luck, success may just stumble upon you.

Of course, in poker you can also use rakeback deals to better your odds. Check out rakemeback.com for such rakeback deals, or if you want the works, check out some of the poker prop deals offered by pokerprops.com. Remember, you can't possibly consider yourself a sharp player unless you are on the receiving end of one of these loyalty setups.

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